Duriin-API/workers/outcomeAutonomyWorker.js

const os = require('os');
const https = require('https');
const { openRuntimeDb } = require('../src/db/runtime');
const { initAutonomySchema } = require('../src/autonomy/schema');
const { calculateOutcome, addTradingDays, yahooSymbol } = require('../src/autonomy/outcomes');

function sleep(ms) { return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms)); }
function httpGet(url) {
  return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
    const request = https.get(url, { headers: { 'User-Agent': 'duriin-autonomy/1.0' } }, (response) => {
      let body = '';
      response.setEncoding('utf8');
      response.on('data', (chunk) => { body += chunk; });
      response.on('end', () => response.statusCode >= 200 && response.statusCode < 300
        ? resolve(body) : reject(new Error(`market data returned ${response.statusCode}`)));
    });
    request.setTimeout(15000, () => request.destroy(new Error('market data timeout')));
    request.on('error', reject);
  });
}

const MAX_OUTCOME_ATTEMPTS = 5;
// how far past the horizon we keep trying before accepting there is no data
const UNRESOLVABLE_GRACE_DAYS = 3;

async function history(symbol) {
  // GDELT backfills predate the normal rolling quote window.  Use an explicit
  // point-in-time range so replay outcomes do not silently become unresolvable.
  const url = `https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/${encodeURIComponent(yahooSymbol(symbol))}?period1=946684800&period2=${Math.floor(Date.now() / 1000)}&interval=1d`;
  const body = JSON.parse(await httpGet(url));
  const result = body?.chart?.result?.[0];
  if (!result) return [];
  return (result.timestamp || []).map((timestamp, index) => ({
    date: new Date(timestamp * 1000).toISOString().slice(0, 10),
    close: result.indicators?.quote?.[0]?.close?.[index],
  })).filter((row) => Number.isFinite(row.close));
}

async function resolveAutonomyOutcomes({ intelligencePath, workerId = `outcome-${os.hostname()}-${process.pid}`, pollMs = 60000 } = {}) {
  const db = openRuntimeDb(intelligencePath, { schema: 'intelligence' });
  db.pragma('journal_mode = WAL');
  db.pragma('busy_timeout = 5000');
  initAutonomySchema(db);
  const cache = new Map();
  const failures = new Map();
  while (true) {
    // The sql filter is deliberately loose, it only counts calendar days and cannot
    // know about weekends or when a close actually publishes. Trading day
    // arithmetic, the same arithmetic calculateOutcome uses to find the exit bar,
    // then decides what is genuinely ready.
    const candidates = db.prepare(`
      SELECT p.* FROM autonomy_predictions p
      LEFT JOIN autonomy_outcomes o ON o.prediction_id = p.id
      WHERE p.status = 'open' AND o.prediction_id IS NULL
        AND datetime(p.information_cutoff, '+' || p.horizon_days || ' days') <= datetime('now')
      ORDER BY p.information_cutoff ASC LIMIT 100
    `).all();

    const today = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
    const predictions = candidates.filter((p) => {
      const horizonDate = addTradingDays(String(p.information_cutoff).slice(0, 10), p.horizon_days);
      // strictly before today, so the exit session has closed and published
      return horizonDate < today;
    }).slice(0, 25);
    for (const prediction of predictions) {
      try {
        if (!cache.has(prediction.instrument)) cache.set(prediction.instrument, await history(prediction.instrument));
        if (!cache.has('SPY')) cache.set('SPY', await history('SPY'));
        const result = calculateOutcome(prediction, cache.get(prediction.instrument), cache.get('SPY'));
        if (!result) {
          // A null here almost always means the exit bar has not published yet, not
          // that the prediction can never be scored. The sql due-check counts
          // calendar days while the price lookup counts trading days, so a friday
          // horizon-1 call looks due on saturday when monday's close cannot exist.
          // Retiring it there permanently destroyed exactly the short-horizon live
          // predictions we are waiting on. Wait until the horizon is properly past
          // before giving up on it.
          const horizonDate = addTradingDays(String(prediction.information_cutoff).slice(0, 10), prediction.horizon_days);
          const graceExpired = addTradingDays(horizonDate, UNRESOLVABLE_GRACE_DAYS) < new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
          if (graceExpired) {
            db.prepare("UPDATE autonomy_predictions SET status = 'unresolvable' WHERE id = ?").run(prediction.id);
            console.error(`[autonomy-outcome] ${workerId} prediction ${prediction.id} (${prediction.instrument})`
              + ` unresolvable: no market data ${UNRESOLVABLE_GRACE_DAYS} trading days past horizon ${horizonDate}`);
          } else {
            cache.delete(prediction.instrument);
          }
          continue;
        }
        db.prepare(`
          INSERT INTO autonomy_outcomes
            (prediction_id, price_0, price_horizon, benchmark_0, benchmark_horizon, excess_return, direction_correct, error_type)
          VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
          ON CONFLICT(prediction_id) DO UPDATE SET
            price_0=excluded.price_0,
            price_horizon=excluded.price_horizon,
            benchmark_0=excluded.benchmark_0,
            benchmark_horizon=excluded.benchmark_horizon,
            excess_return=excluded.excess_return,
            direction_correct=excluded.direction_correct,
            error_type=excluded.error_type,
            evaluated_at=datetime('now')
        `).run(prediction.id, result.price0, result.priceHorizon, result.benchmark0, result.benchmarkHorizon,
          result.excessReturn, result.directionCorrect, result.directionCorrect ? null : 'direction_error');
        db.prepare("UPDATE autonomy_predictions SET status = 'resolved' WHERE id = ?").run(prediction.id);
      } catch (error) {
        // A prediction that keeps failing stays 'open' and comes straight back on the
        // next poll, so a symbol market data will never have just spins forever. Give
        // it a few goes for genuinely transient failures, then retire it.
        const attempts = (failures.get(prediction.id) || 0) + 1;
        failures.set(prediction.id, attempts);
        console.error(`[autonomy-outcome] ${workerId} prediction ${prediction.id} (${prediction.instrument})`
          + ` attempt ${attempts}/${MAX_OUTCOME_ATTEMPTS}:`, error.message);
        if (attempts >= MAX_OUTCOME_ATTEMPTS) {
          db.prepare("UPDATE autonomy_predictions SET status = 'unresolvable' WHERE id = ?").run(prediction.id);
          failures.delete(prediction.id);
          console.error(`[autonomy-outcome] ${workerId} prediction ${prediction.id} marked unresolvable`
            + ` after ${attempts} failed attempts on ${prediction.instrument}`);
        }
        cache.delete(prediction.instrument);
      }
      await sleep(800);
    }
    await sleep(pollMs);
  }
}

module.exports = { calculateOutcome, resolveAutonomyOutcomes, yahooSymbol };