96% of rejected proposals name something untradable: indices (SPX, DXY, ^TNX),
fx (EURUSD, XAU/USD), futures (CL=F, BZ=F) and home listings (VOW3.DE, RHM.DE,
1211.HK, 688169.SS). The analysis behind those is usually sound, it is the ticker
that cannot be used, and nothing in the prompt ever said so. We were paying for
the call and discarding the result at validation.
The rules point the model at what the allowlist actually holds: US listings and
ADRs for foreign companies, and US listed ETFs as the tradable expression of an
index, currency, rate or commodity. Every symbol named in the rules was checked
against the live allowlist first, so VWAGY, BABA, TM, SONY, SPY, QQQ, GLD, USO,
UUP and TLT all genuinely resolve. It also forbids predicting SPY itself, which
is the benchmark and whose excess return is zero by construction.
Shared between the coordinator and replay prompts rather than written twice,
since a rule that drifts between the two lanes is worse than no rule.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01WnNxwxfXSbeNtjvtz5gayb
