Duriin-API/test/calibrationLanes.test.js

const test = require('node:test');
const assert = require('node:assert/strict');
const Database = require('better-sqlite3');

const { initAutonomySchema } = require('../src/autonomy/schema');
const { cohortKey } = require('../src/autonomy/calibration');
const {
  refreshCalibration,
  refreshHistoricalCalibration,
  createDecisions,
  calibrationHealth,
} = require('../workers/calibrationWorker');

function seedDb() {
  const db = new Database(':memory:');
  initAutonomySchema(db);
  db.prepare("INSERT INTO autonomy_proposals(payload, information_cutoff, status) VALUES ('{}', '2026-01-01T00:00:00Z', 'accepted')").run();
  return db;
}

function addPrediction(db, { instrument, direction = 'positive', eventType = 'earnings_beat', horizonDays = 10,
  origin = 'live', status = 'resolved', learningEligible = 0, replayRunId = null, excessReturn = null, correct = null }) {
  const prediction = db.prepare(`
    INSERT INTO autonomy_predictions
      (proposal_id, instrument, direction, event_type, horizon_days, information_cutoff, evidence_article_ids,
       learning_eligible, strategy_version, origin, replay_run_id, status)
    VALUES (1, ?, ?, ?, ?, '2026-01-01T00:00:00Z', '[1]', ?, 'test', ?, ?, ?)
  `).run(instrument, direction, eventType, horizonDays, learningEligible, origin, replayRunId, status);
  if (excessReturn !== null) {
    db.prepare('INSERT INTO autonomy_outcomes(prediction_id, excess_return, direction_correct) VALUES (?, ?, ?)')
      .run(prediction.lastInsertRowid, excessReturn, correct);
  }
  return prediction.lastInsertRowid;
}

test('live calibration no longer starves on the never-set learning_eligible flag', () => {
  const db = seedDb();
  addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'NVDA', excessReturn: 0.03, correct: 1 });
  addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'AMD', excessReturn: -0.01, correct: 0 });

  assert.equal(refreshCalibration(db, 'live-cal'), 1);
  const snapshot = db.prepare("SELECT * FROM autonomy_calibration_snapshots WHERE source='live'").get();
  assert.equal(snapshot.sample_size, 2);
  assert.equal(snapshot.distinct_instruments, 2);

  // the old behaviour is still reachable on purpose, for once the flag is populated
  assert.equal(refreshCalibration(db, 'strict-cal', { requireLearningEligible: true }), 0);

  // counters report snapshots written, so a steady state poll is genuinely quiet
  assert.equal(refreshCalibration(db, 'live-cal'), 0);
  assert.equal(db.prepare("SELECT COUNT(*) c FROM autonomy_calibration_snapshots WHERE source='live'").get().c, 1);
});

test('historical calibration pools origin historical and replay together', () => {
  const db = seedDb();
  addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'NVDA', origin: 'historical', excessReturn: 0.02, correct: 1 });
  addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'AMD', origin: 'historical', excessReturn: 0.01, correct: 1 });
  addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'INTC', origin: 'replay', replayRunId: 3, excessReturn: -0.02, correct: 0 });

  refreshHistoricalCalibration(db, 'hist-cal');
  const pooled = db.prepare("SELECT * FROM autonomy_calibration_snapshots WHERE source='historical'").get();
  assert.equal(pooled.sample_size, 3, 'the historical lane must not drop the relabelled rows');
  assert.equal(pooled.distinct_instruments, 3);
  const perRun = db.prepare("SELECT * FROM autonomy_calibration_snapshots WHERE source='replay'").get();
  assert.equal(perRun.replay_run_id, 3);
  assert.equal(perRun.sample_size, 1);
});

test('decisions are only written for open live predictions', () => {
  const db = seedDb();
  const open = addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'NVDA', status: 'open' });
  addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'AMD', status: 'resolved', excessReturn: 0.01, correct: 1 });
  addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'INTC', status: 'open', origin: 'historical' });
  addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'MU', status: 'open', origin: 'replay', replayRunId: 3 });

  assert.equal(createDecisions(db), 1);
  const rows = db.prepare('SELECT prediction_id, action FROM autonomy_decisions').all();
  assert.equal(rows.length, 1);
  assert.equal(rows[0].prediction_id, open);
  assert.equal(rows[0].action, 'ABSTAIN');
  // second pass must not duplicate
  assert.equal(createDecisions(db), 0);
});

test('a big single ticker historical cohort still cannot authorise a live buy', () => {
  const db = seedDb();
  for (let index = 0; index < 60; index++) {
    addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'NVDA', origin: 'historical', excessReturn: 0.04, correct: 1 });
  }
  refreshHistoricalCalibration(db, 'hist-cal');
  const prediction = addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'NVDA', status: 'open' });

  assert.equal(createDecisions(db), 1);
  const decision = db.prepare('SELECT * FROM autonomy_decisions WHERE prediction_id=?').get(prediction);
  assert.equal(decision.action, 'ABSTAIN');
  // offline evidence never authorises a live order, however much of it there is,
  // and the abstain has to say the offline data existed so it isnt mistaken for
  // "we know nothing about this cohort"
  assert.match(decision.rationale, /no live calibration/);
  assert.match(decision.rationale, /offline_only source=historical n=60/);
  assert.match(decision.rationale, new RegExp(cohortKey({ direction: 'positive', eventType: 'earnings_beat', horizonDays: 10 }).replace(/\|/g, '\\|')));
});

test('a cohort with no evidence at all is distinguishable from an offline only one', () => {
  const db = seedDb();
  const prediction = addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'NVDA', status: 'open' });

  assert.equal(createDecisions(db), 1);
  const decision = db.prepare('SELECT * FROM autonomy_decisions WHERE prediction_id=?').get(prediction);
  assert.equal(decision.action, 'ABSTAIN');
  assert.match(decision.rationale, /no evidence/);
});

test('calibration health reports the stall instead of staying silent', () => {
  const db = seedDb();
  addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'NVDA', origin: 'historical', excessReturn: 0.02, correct: 1 });
  addPrediction(db, { instrument: 'AMD', status: 'open' });
  refreshHistoricalCalibration(db, 'hist-cal');

  const health = calibrationHealth(db);
  assert.equal(health.liveOpen, 1);
  assert.equal(health.offlineResolved, 1);
  assert.equal(health.learningEligible, 0);
  assert.ok(health.cohorts >= 1);
  assert.equal(health.qualifyingCohorts, 0);
});