The coordinator is scored on excess return vs SPY starting at the information
cutoff, so the announcement move sits outside the scored window. That move is
the best documented conditioner for post event drift and we were discarding it.
This measures whether keeping it would buy us anything, before any of it gets
wired into the cohort key or the prompt.
Reaction is measured from the last close before the event's first article up to
the outcome's own entry price, so the reaction and forward windows touch but
never overlap. Read only, and it caches price history so it can be re-run cheaply
as more outcomes mature.
T1 and T2 are pre-registered in the header because sweeping buckets over 611
outcomes that are half one ticker will always turn up something.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01WnNxwxfXSbeNtjvtz5gayb
Archive ingestion had been dead since 2026-08-02 because nothing in the
compose stack actually ran it. Everything downstream starved from there.
- add ingest + enrichment services. server.js only starts the scheduler when
DURIIN_RUN_SCHEDULER is not "false", and workers/index.js was not running at
all, so articles never got event_id/content/has_embedding and the coordinator
had nothing to lease.
- pass an explicit origin from coordinatorWorker. it was never passed, so
acceptProposal defaulted to 'live' and 464 historical backfill predictions
were recorded as live. that also meant verifyEvidence got a null cutoff and
skipped its date check entirely.
- coarsen cohortKey to event families + horizon buckets. 201 free text event
types produced 221 cohorts averaging 2.76 samples, so the n>=30 gate could
never be reached and everything abstained for the wrong reason.
- gate on cohort diversity, not just sample count. one ticker was roughly half
of all resolved outcomes, so a pure count gate was measuring one company.
unknown diversity abstains rather than passing.
- resolve the admin archive db explicitly and probe it. it relied on a
Dockerfile symlink, and without it better-sqlite3 quietly creates an empty
file and serves a phantom archive.
- clamp implausible future publication dates at ingest.
- pin the db backend to sqlite by default. compose hardcoded postgres "true",
which would have overridden the operator's own .env on the next redeploy and
pointed everything at a stale snapshot.
scripts/repair-autonomy-labels.js relabels the affected rows. it is dry run by
default and has not been applied.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01WnNxwxfXSbeNtjvtz5gayb
