Three separate things had the pipeline frozen for 27 hours.
browserCrawler leaked page slots. context.newPage() sat outside the try, so a
throw or a hang there took the slot with it, and after maxConcurrentPages of
those every caller parked in acquirePageSlot forever. That is what it looked
like from outside: content workers alive, no logs, no progress, 13 chromium
renderers still up 10 hours after start. newPage is inside the try now, waiting
for a slot times out instead of blocking forever, and page.close() is raced so a
wedged renderer cant strand the slot on the way out either.
graphWorker had no backoff on quota failures. A blown OpenRouter monthly limit
returns an instant 403, so it retried as fast as the network allowed: 2356
failures in 20 minutes, drowning every other line in the log. Quota and auth
errors now pause resolution for 15 minutes and log once per window rather than
once per attempt.
The outcome worker retried unresolvable predictions forever. Yahoo writes class
shares with a dash, so BRK.B 404s every time, and a failed prediction stays open
and comes straight back on the next poll. Dots are translated to dashes, which
matters beyond this one name because the allowlist is full of dotted symbols,
and a prediction that fails five times is marked unresolvable instead of
spinning.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01WnNxwxfXSbeNtjvtz5gayb
The JSON shape in both prompts used real values as placeholders, and the model
was reading them as the answer:
instrument: 'NVDA' -> 397 of 611 predictions are NVDA (65%),
second place is LMT with 8
horizon_days: 10 -> 606 of 611 are horizon 10 (99.2%), out of
seven allowed horizons
direction: 'positive|negative' -> 502 of 611 are positive (82.2%)
event_type: 'stable_enum' -> the enum was never listed, so the model
invented one label per event, 201 distinct
values across 611 predictions
replayWorker had its own copy of the same prompt with the same values, which is
why both lanes show the identical skew (replay is 147/147 horizon 10, 138/147
NVDA).
Every placeholder is now a description of the field rather than a usable value,
with an explicit line saying not to copy them. event_type is validated against
the same closed family list the cohort key uses, so a label cannot mean one
thing in the prompt and another in calibration. Off-enum labels are salvaged
through the existing mapper when they are placeable and rejected when they are
not, so 'other' does not quietly become the bin again.
This does not by itself create edge. It means the next batch of predictions
measures the model's judgement instead of its willingness to copy an example.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01WnNxwxfXSbeNtjvtz5gayb
Offline evidence can no longer authorise anything. createDecisions used to
prefer a live snapshot and fall back to the pooled historical one, so once the
live lane woke up a live prediction could have drawn a BUY off backfill data.
Backfill and replay are fine evidence that the pipeline works, they are not a
live track record.
No live snapshot now means ABSTAIN. The abstain says whether offline evidence
existed for that cohort, so "we have 60 offline samples but no live ones" stays
distinguishable from "we know nothing about this cohort".
Also split the health counter. It counted qualifying cohorts across every
source, which overstated how close we are to being able to trade now that only
live cohorts can authorise. It reports qualifying_live_cohorts and
qualifying_offline_cohorts separately, and applies the concentration cap it was
previously ignoring.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01WnNxwxfXSbeNtjvtz5gayb
Archive ingestion had been dead since 2026-08-02 because nothing in the
compose stack actually ran it. Everything downstream starved from there.
- add ingest + enrichment services. server.js only starts the scheduler when
DURIIN_RUN_SCHEDULER is not "false", and workers/index.js was not running at
all, so articles never got event_id/content/has_embedding and the coordinator
had nothing to lease.
- pass an explicit origin from coordinatorWorker. it was never passed, so
acceptProposal defaulted to 'live' and 464 historical backfill predictions
were recorded as live. that also meant verifyEvidence got a null cutoff and
skipped its date check entirely.
- coarsen cohortKey to event families + horizon buckets. 201 free text event
types produced 221 cohorts averaging 2.76 samples, so the n>=30 gate could
never be reached and everything abstained for the wrong reason.
- gate on cohort diversity, not just sample count. one ticker was roughly half
of all resolved outcomes, so a pure count gate was measuring one company.
unknown diversity abstains rather than passing.
- resolve the admin archive db explicitly and probe it. it relied on a
Dockerfile symlink, and without it better-sqlite3 quietly creates an empty
file and serves a phantom archive.
- clamp implausible future publication dates at ingest.
- pin the db backend to sqlite by default. compose hardcoded postgres "true",
which would have overridden the operator's own .env on the next redeploy and
pointed everything at a stale snapshot.
scripts/repair-autonomy-labels.js relabels the affected rows. it is dry run by
default and has not been applied.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01WnNxwxfXSbeNtjvtz5gayb
