fix: stop discarding live predictions the moment they mature

Six live predictions were marked unresolvable, including MSFT twice, WMT and
ITW. Re-running the calculation against yahoo resolves all six, so they were
never unresolvable, they were scored before the market data existed and then
thrown away permanently.

The due-check counted calendar days while calculateOutcome finds the exit bar by
trading days. A friday horizon-1 prediction therefore looked due on saturday,
when monday's close cannot exist. calculateOutcome returned null and the worker
treated null as permanently dead. This hit short horizons hardest, which is
exactly the cohort that produces the first live evidence.

The sql filter stays loose because it cannot know about weekends, and trading day
arithmetic now decides what is genuinely ready. A null result waits for the
horizon to be properly past before anything is retired, and says so when it
finally gives up.

Separately, at horizon 1 the entry and exit lookups could land on the same bar
and produce an excess return of exactly zero, which was recorded as a real
outcome and scored as a directional miss. ITW and WMT both did this. A horizon
that has not elapsed is no longer a measurement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01WnNxwxfXSbeNtjvtz5gayb

test/autonomy.test.js

@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ const { normalizeProposal, acceptProposal } = require('../src/autonomy/coordinat
 const { calibrateOutcomes, cohortKey } = require('../src/autonomy/calibration');
 const { decide } = require('../src/autonomy/policy');
 const { validatePaperIntent, createSimulator } = require('../src/autonomy/execution');
-const { calculateOutcome } = require('../src/autonomy/outcomes');
+const { calculateOutcome, addTradingDays } = require('../src/autonomy/outcomes');
 const { yahooSymbol } = require('../workers/outcomeAutonomyWorker');
 const { createOrderIntent } = require('../src/autonomy/orderIntents');
 const { enqueueCoordinatorEvent, reconcileArchiveBatch, reconcileLiveBatch } = require('../workers/autonomyWorker');
@@ -306,3 +306,33 @@ test('dotted tickers are translated to the format the price feed expects', () =>
   assert.equal(yahooSymbol('NVDA'), 'NVDA');
   assert.equal(yahooSymbol(' spy '), 'SPY');
 });
+
+test('an outcome whose horizon has not actually elapsed is not a result', () => {
+  // ITW and WMT both scored exactly 0.00% excess in production because at
+  // horizon 1 the entry and exit lookups landed on the same bar. Zero is not a
+  // measurement, and it was being recorded as a directional miss.
+  const sameBar = calculateOutcome(
+    { information_cutoff: '2026-01-02T00:00:00Z', horizon_days: 1, direction: 'positive' },
+    [{ date: '2026-01-05', close: 100 }],
+    [{ date: '2026-01-05', close: 100 }]
+  );
+  assert.equal(sameBar, null);
+
+  // the exit bar genuinely existing still scores normally
+  const real = calculateOutcome(
+    { information_cutoff: '2026-01-02T00:00:00Z', horizon_days: 1, direction: 'positive' },
+    [{ date: '2026-01-02', close: 100 }, { date: '2026-01-05', close: 104 }],
+    [{ date: '2026-01-02', close: 100 }, { date: '2026-01-05', close: 102 }]
+  );
+  assert.equal(real.directionCorrect, 1);
+  assert.ok(Math.abs(real.excessReturn - 0.02) < 1e-9);
+});
+
+test('trading day arithmetic steps over weekends', () => {
+  // friday + 1 trading day is monday, not saturday. the old due-check counted
+  // calendar days and so called a friday horizon-1 prediction due on saturday,
+  // when monday's close cannot exist yet.
+  assert.equal(addTradingDays('2026-01-02', 1), '2026-01-05');
+  assert.equal(addTradingDays('2026-01-02', 5), '2026-01-09');
+  assert.equal(addTradingDays('2026-01-02', 0), '2026-01-02');
+});