fix: restart the stalled autonomy pipeline and make calibration honest

Archive ingestion had been dead since 2026-08-02 because nothing in the
compose stack actually ran it. Everything downstream starved from there.

- add ingest + enrichment services. server.js only starts the scheduler when
  DURIIN_RUN_SCHEDULER is not "false", and workers/index.js was not running at
  all, so articles never got event_id/content/has_embedding and the coordinator
  had nothing to lease.
- pass an explicit origin from coordinatorWorker. it was never passed, so
  acceptProposal defaulted to 'live' and 464 historical backfill predictions
  were recorded as live. that also meant verifyEvidence got a null cutoff and
  skipped its date check entirely.
- coarsen cohortKey to event families + horizon buckets. 201 free text event
  types produced 221 cohorts averaging 2.76 samples, so the n>=30 gate could
  never be reached and everything abstained for the wrong reason.
- gate on cohort diversity, not just sample count. one ticker was roughly half
  of all resolved outcomes, so a pure count gate was measuring one company.
  unknown diversity abstains rather than passing.
- resolve the admin archive db explicitly and probe it. it relied on a
  Dockerfile symlink, and without it better-sqlite3 quietly creates an empty
  file and serves a phantom archive.
- clamp implausible future publication dates at ingest.
- pin the db backend to sqlite by default. compose hardcoded postgres "true",
  which would have overridden the operator's own .env on the next redeploy and
  pointed everything at a stale snapshot.

scripts/repair-autonomy-labels.js relabels the affected rows. it is dry run by
default and has not been applied.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01WnNxwxfXSbeNtjvtz5gayb

src/autonomy/coordinator.js

@@ -36,18 +36,22 @@ function normalizeProposal(raw, { informationCutoff, model = 'unknown', promptVe
 
 function verifyEvidence(archiveDb, articleIds, informationCutoff = null) {
   const placeholders = articleIds.map(() => '?').join(',');
-  // A replay must only see material which existed at its information cutoff.
-  // Live proposals retain the simpler existence check.
+  // No proposal, whatever lane produced it, may cite material which did not yet
+  // exist at its own information cutoff.  This used to be a replay-only rule and
+  // that was a lookahead hole for every other origin.
   const cutoffClause = informationCutoff ? ' AND datetime(COALESCE(pub_date_effective, pub_date, ingested_at)) <= datetime(?)' : '';
   let rows;
   try {
     rows = archiveDb.prepare(`SELECT id FROM articles WHERE id IN (${placeholders})${cutoffClause}`)
       .all(...articleIds, ...(informationCutoff ? [informationCutoff] : []));
   } catch (error) {
-    // Minimal/test archives may not retain publication metadata.  A production
-    // replay archive is required to have it, so this fallback is only for the
-    // existing live evidence contract.
-    if (informationCutoff) throw error;
+    // Minimal/test archives may not retain publication metadata at all, in which
+    // case the cutoff clause cannot even be prepared.  We degrade to a plain
+    // existence check rather than blocking the pipeline, but the degredation is
+    // never silent - a production archive missing these columns is a real bug.
+    console.warn('[coordinator] evidence cutoff check unavailable, falling back to existence only.',
+      `cutoff=${informationCutoff} articles=${JSON.stringify(articleIds)} reason=${error && error.message}`);
+    if (error && error.stack) console.warn(error.stack);
     rows = archiveDb.prepare(`SELECT id FROM articles WHERE id IN (${placeholders})`).all(...articleIds);
   }
   const found = new Set(rows.map((row) => row.id));
@@ -57,7 +61,7 @@ function verifyEvidence(archiveDb, articleIds, informationCutoff = null) {
 function acceptProposal(intelligenceDb, archiveDb, raw, metadata = {}) {
   const proposal = normalizeProposal(raw, metadata);
   for (const prediction of proposal.predictions) {
-    if (!verifyEvidence(archiveDb, prediction.evidenceArticleIds, metadata.origin === 'replay' ? proposal.informationCutoff : null)) {
+    if (!verifyEvidence(archiveDb, prediction.evidenceArticleIds, proposal.informationCutoff)) {
       throw new Error(`proposal references missing evidence for ${prediction.instrument}`);
     }
     const instrument = intelligenceDb.prepare(