feat: add isolated historical replay calibration

src/routes/admin.js

@@ -174,7 +174,9 @@ async function adminRoutes(fastify) {
     const outcomeSummary = intelligenceDb.prepare(`
       SELECT COUNT(*) AS total, SUM(direction_correct) AS correct,
              AVG(excess_return) AS average_excess_return
-      FROM autonomy_outcomes
+      FROM autonomy_outcomes o
+      JOIN autonomy_predictions p ON p.id = o.prediction_id
+      WHERE p.origin = 'live'
     `).get();
     const instruments = intelligenceDb.prepare(`
       SELECT COUNT(*) AS count FROM autonomy_instruments WHERE active=1 AND tradable=1
@@ -214,6 +216,18 @@ async function adminRoutes(fastify) {
              expected_excess_return, lower_return, upper_return, created_at
       FROM autonomy_calibration_snapshots ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT 8
     `).all();
+    const replay = intelligenceDb.prepare(`
+      SELECT r.id, r.status, r.watermark_at, r.cursor_article_id, r.cursor_effective_at,
+             r.processed_articles, r.updated_at,
+             SUM(CASE WHEN p.status = 'resolved' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS resolved_predictions,
+             COUNT(p.id) AS predictions,
+             SUM(o.direction_correct) AS correct_predictions,
+             (SELECT COUNT(*) FROM autonomy_replay_evaluations e WHERE e.replay_run_id = r.id) AS evaluations
+      FROM autonomy_replay_runs r
+      LEFT JOIN autonomy_predictions p ON p.replay_run_id = r.id
+      LEFT JOIN autonomy_outcomes o ON o.prediction_id = p.id
+      GROUP BY r.id ORDER BY r.id DESC LIMIT 1
+    `).get() || null;
 
     return {
       enabled: true,
@@ -232,6 +246,7 @@ async function adminRoutes(fastify) {
       latestOrders,
       account,
       calibration,
+      replay,
       generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
     };
   });