feat: add isolated historical replay calibration

src/autonomy/schema.js

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-const AUTONOMY_SCHEMA_VERSION = 1;
+const AUTONOMY_SCHEMA_VERSION = 2;
 
 function initAutonomySchema(db) {
   db.exec(`
@@ -178,12 +178,52 @@ function initAutonomySchema(db) {
       captured_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT (datetime('now'))
     );
 
+    -- Historical replay is a separate evidence path.  It deliberately never
+    -- writes to autonomy_decisions or order intents.
+    CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS autonomy_replay_runs (
+      id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
+      status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'running'
+        CHECK (status IN ('running', 'paused', 'complete', 'superseded', 'failed')),
+      start_at TEXT,
+      watermark_at TEXT,
+      cursor_article_id INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      cursor_effective_at TEXT,
+      processed_articles INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      strategy_version TEXT NOT NULL,
+      prompt_version TEXT NOT NULL,
+      coordinator_model TEXT,
+      price_provider TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'yahoo',
+      created_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT (datetime('now')),
+      updated_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT (datetime('now')),
+      completed_at TEXT,
+      last_error TEXT
+    );
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_autonomy_replay_runs_active
+      ON autonomy_replay_runs(status, cursor_article_id);
+
+    CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS autonomy_replay_evaluations (
+      prediction_id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY REFERENCES autonomy_predictions(id),
+      replay_run_id INTEGER NOT NULL REFERENCES autonomy_replay_runs(id),
+      snapshot_cutoff TEXT NOT NULL,
+      sample_size INTEGER NOT NULL,
+      action TEXT NOT NULL CHECK (action IN ('BUY', 'SELL', 'HOLD', 'ABSTAIN')),
+      calibrated_probability REAL,
+      expected_excess_return REAL,
+      rationale TEXT NOT NULL,
+      created_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT (datetime('now'))
+    );
+
     INSERT OR IGNORE INTO autonomy_schema(version) VALUES (${AUTONOMY_SCHEMA_VERSION});
   `);
   for (const statement of [
     'ALTER TABLE autonomy_order_intents ADD COLUMN attempts INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0',
     'ALTER TABLE autonomy_order_intents ADD COLUMN last_error TEXT',
     'ALTER TABLE autonomy_predictions ADD COLUMN learning_eligible INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0',
+    "ALTER TABLE autonomy_predictions ADD COLUMN origin TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'live'",
+    'ALTER TABLE autonomy_predictions ADD COLUMN replay_run_id INTEGER',
+    'ALTER TABLE autonomy_replay_runs ADD COLUMN cursor_effective_at TEXT',
+    "ALTER TABLE autonomy_calibration_snapshots ADD COLUMN source TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'live'",
+    'ALTER TABLE autonomy_calibration_snapshots ADD COLUMN replay_run_id INTEGER',
   ]) {
     try { db.exec(statement); } catch (_) {}
   }