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feat: add isolated historical replay calibration

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ImBenji
2026-08-04 22:00:11 +01:00
parent be18eb77f0
commit 5877783862
13 changed files with 308 additions and 17 deletions
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src/autonomy/coordinator.js
+20 -6
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@@ -34,9 +34,22 @@ function normalizeProposal(raw, { informationCutoff, model = 'unknown', promptVe
};
}
function verifyEvidence(archiveDb, articleIds) {
function verifyEvidence(archiveDb, articleIds, informationCutoff = null) {
const placeholders = articleIds.map(() => '?').join(',');
const rows = archiveDb.prepare(`SELECT id FROM articles WHERE id IN (${placeholders})`).all(...articleIds);
// A replay must only see material which existed at its information cutoff.
// Live proposals retain the simpler existence check.
const cutoffClause = informationCutoff ? ' AND datetime(COALESCE(pub_date_effective, pub_date, ingested_at)) <= datetime(?)' : '';
let rows;
try {
rows = archiveDb.prepare(`SELECT id FROM articles WHERE id IN (${placeholders})${cutoffClause}`)
.all(...articleIds, ...(informationCutoff ? [informationCutoff] : []));
} catch (error) {
// Minimal/test archives may not retain publication metadata. A production
// replay archive is required to have it, so this fallback is only for the
// existing live evidence contract.
if (informationCutoff) throw error;
rows = archiveDb.prepare(`SELECT id FROM articles WHERE id IN (${placeholders})`).all(...articleIds);
}
const found = new Set(rows.map((row) => row.id));
return articleIds.every((id) => found.has(id));
}
@@ -44,7 +57,7 @@ function verifyEvidence(archiveDb, articleIds) {
function acceptProposal(intelligenceDb, archiveDb, raw, metadata = {}) {
const proposal = normalizeProposal(raw, metadata);
for (const prediction of proposal.predictions) {
if (!verifyEvidence(archiveDb, prediction.evidenceArticleIds)) {
if (!verifyEvidence(archiveDb, prediction.evidenceArticleIds, metadata.origin === 'replay' ? proposal.informationCutoff : null)) {
throw new Error(`proposal references missing evidence for ${prediction.instrument}`);
}
const instrument = intelligenceDb.prepare(
@@ -60,8 +73,8 @@ function acceptProposal(intelligenceDb, archiveDb, raw, metadata = {}) {
const insertPrediction = intelligenceDb.prepare(`
INSERT INTO autonomy_predictions
(proposal_id, event_id, instrument, direction, event_type, causal_channel,
horizon_days, information_cutoff, evidence_article_ids, invalidation_condition, learning_eligible, strategy_version)
VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
horizon_days, information_cutoff, evidence_article_ids, invalidation_condition, learning_eligible, strategy_version, origin, replay_run_id)
VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
`);
const tx = intelligenceDb.transaction(() => {
const proposalResult = insert.run(metadata.eventId || null, JSON.stringify(proposal), proposal.informationCutoff,
@@ -70,7 +83,8 @@ function acceptProposal(intelligenceDb, archiveDb, raw, metadata = {}) {
insertPrediction.run(proposalResult.lastInsertRowid, metadata.eventId || null, prediction.instrument,
prediction.direction, prediction.eventType, prediction.causalChannel, prediction.horizonDays,
proposal.informationCutoff, JSON.stringify(prediction.evidenceArticleIds), prediction.invalidationCondition,
metadata.learningEligible ? 1 : 0, metadata.strategyVersion || 'autonomy-1');
metadata.learningEligible ? 1 : 0, metadata.strategyVersion || 'autonomy-1',
metadata.origin || 'live', metadata.replayRunId || null);
}
return Number(proposalResult.lastInsertRowid);
});